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The county that will determine whether Arizona goes red or blue this year

Writer's picture: James BarattaJames Baratta

In August and November, Maricopa County residents heading to the polls will have a new set of voting priorities: inflation, guns and reproductive rights.


Encompassing Phoenix, Maricopa is home to 60 percent of the state’s electorate. Voters here will determine whether Arizona goes red or blue this year.


President Joe Biden’s narrow victory during the 2020 presidential election marked a significant departure from the county’s historic voting habits. Growing populations of overwhelmingly Democratic Latino voters and white, college-educated moderates helped break the county’s decades-long Republican voting streak.




But as Republicans make inroads with Latinos throughout the electorate, Maricopa could flip back to the GOP.


This fall, Arizona voters will elect one senator and nine House members. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who has prioritized tackling inflation and supply chain challenges, is running for election to his first full term after winning a special election for the seat two years ago. Incumbent Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs will compete against Marco Lopez in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Four House races are taking place in Maricopa.

Ballooning inflation and skyrocketing living expenses have had far-reaching implications for all Americans, but Maricopa County’s growing electorate has been hit particularly hard.


Housing costs along with the price of gasoline, food and prescription drugs have been rising steadily in Maricopa and elsewhere across the state, with inflation in Phoenix hitting 11 percent earlier this year.


Although immigration has remained a salient issue among Arizona voters, reproductive rights and the countywide increase in gun violence could also shape the outcome of the state’s forthcoming midterm election.


On the day of the landmark Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, pro-choice protesters gathered outside the state Capitol in Phoenix. Planned Parenthood Arizona has since halted all scheduled abortion procedures.


Arizona has lenient gun-control laws. Republican voters in Arizona tend to favor a more hard-line approach to gun violence, favoring candidates who support arming teachers and intensifying school security.


In 2021 and the first half of 2022, there were at least a dozen shootings in Arizona. The vast majority of these incidents happened in Phoenix.


— James Baratta


 

This article was published by POLITICO (politico.com) on July 12, 2022.


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©2019 by James Baratta.

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